Experts: Beware - landslide season is coming soon

By Ray Lane
SEATTLE - The weather may be dry this weekend, but windier, wetter, colder winter weather is a certainty in the coming weeks - courtesy of the La Niña weather pattern this year.

With all of that comes the threat of landslides in the months ahead. And emergency management officials were on hand Saturday in West Seattle to tell homeowners how to avoid disaster in case the earth really does move.

At the root of the problem is the hilly geography of the Puget Sound region - with Seattle being the second-hilliest city in the nation behind San Francisco.

It's a big reason so many of us enjoy living here - our hills can offer some spectacular views.

But if they're not treated with care, the experts say that sliding ground can easily put your home in jeopardy, especially when the weather gets wet and wild.

Landslide season by now is well under way, with most of them typically occuring next month - after months of water has soaked into the ground.

In West Seattle - where slides are commonplace - emergency management officials made an effort Saturday to educate homeowners on how to prevent them.

As it turns out, a great majority of landslides have some sort of human influence, from chopping down trees to not controlling rainwater.

And that's why homeowners came to Saturday's meeting - to learn what to do, and what not to do on their property.

"I want to restore it to its native state, and remove some of that blackberries and ivy. But I also don't want to create a landslide situation because I live on a steep slope," says Keira Mcgannon, a Beacon Hill homeowner.

How bad can it get?

Late 1996 and early 1997 remains the best reminder. More than 300 landslides rattled Seattle - including the destruction of several homes in the Magnolia neighborhood.

The experts say to take a close look at where you live, and pay attention to things that just don't seem right.

"Areas that have never been muddied before, take a closer look," says Barb Graff of Seattle Emergency Management. "Areas where water is pooling - take a look at that. On hills and slopes, if you notice trees seem to be slanting in a different way, more brush seems to be coming down - that's a potential indicator of a problem."

There's also insurance to consider. If you live in landslide-prone areas, your standard homeowners policy typically excludes "earth movement." You'll need additional, special coverage.

"But a difference-in-conditions policy covers not only landslides, but also mudflow, earthquake and things of that nature," says Karl Newman of the Northwest Insurance Council. "It gives you additional coverage you can't get from a standard homeowners policy."

That type of policy can cost several thousand dollars a year.

And Seattle officials say homeowners should not do anything to their hillside property until they get the OK from the city.


 

This post is an almost perfect example of how all the factors of the complexity model we learned in this course fit together. Here is a city in an MCD that has recognized how their actions affect their environment. Now they are trying to reverse the damage of their urbanization by restoring the land to a somewhat natural habitat. The city is looking at environmental as well as structural factors that contribute to landslides. Seattle is definitely moving in the right direction for they know what dangers lay ahead and are educating the public on what needs to be done to protect not only their homes, but the environment of the area as well. This is a prime example of community taking a complexity based approach to hazards.

CNN producer note

DrAl

CNN producer note

DrAlban of Shkoder, Albania, went up in a flood rescue helicopter yesterday as teams distributed food to isolated homes in the severely flooded city. He says it’s been raining for three weeks and it’s overflowing artificial lakes in the area. He estimates that about a quarter of the city is inundated. 'We have artificial lakes that run hydro power plants. These lakes are getting water in. The government has decided to open the security ports to relieve this. When the ports are opened, all these agricultural lands get covered with water,' he said. The flooding has affected Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia, but he says the worst situation is in Albania.
- zdan, CNN iReport producerban of Shkoder, Albania, went up in a flood rescue helicopter yesterday as teams distributed food to isolated homes in the severely flooded city. He says it’s been raining for three weeks and it’s overflowing artificial lakes in the area. He estimates that about a quarter of the city is inundated. 'We have artificial lakes that run hydro power plants. These lakes are getting water in. The government has decided to open the security ports to relieve this. When the ports are opened, all these agricultural lands get covered with water,' he said. The flooding has affected Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia, but he says the worst situation is in Albania.
- zdan, CNN iReport producer

This is a really good example of how relying on made systems that disturb the environment, things are much more likely to fail. In this case, they were dependant on their man made lakes to supply the energy needs and when those flooded, they had no back up system to rely on. This all has to do with the country’s mitigation strategies and preparedness when it comes to hazards.

Scotland Covered in nowIt’s cold, temperatures are projected to go down as low as -20C. The recorded record low of -16.1C was in Altnaharra which is located in the northern parts of Scotland. The lowest temperature of the winter of 2010 was -22.3C.

Approximately 850 schools have been shut down and 3,000 houses were at sometime without electric power. Scottish Hydro is hoping to have all homes back online by late tonight. Extra personnel have been brought in to help fix the problem.

Being out on the roadways is very dangerous and there are many abandoned vehicles along the way. There have been many roads shut down to hazardous conditions. Travel by air has also been affected with the closing of the Edinburgh Airport at 1800 GMT. Travel by trains has also been interrupted. A ski resort located in the Highlands, Lecht Ski Centre, also had to close down for the day. Emergency areas were set up to help shelter stranded motorist. At first there were 60 people who were looking for protection from the weather by 2000 GMT on Sunday. By Monday, there were 669 people staying there. The weather has been predicted to grow worse this week.

What surprised me about this video was how this particular area should be more than used to winter weather, especially as we start to go into December.  Even if I was a bad blizzard is seems the vulnerability of this community should be low. So, this makes me wonder, what (in anything) was so special about this storm that allowed it to make headlines? From what it looked like, it was a particularly large blizzard for a ski resort to close down and must have been in a particularly populated area.

 

Discovered on LIDAR Images

New Fault Identified in Central Idaho

Researcher at Idaho State University Discovers the Fault on LIDAR Image

Republished from a September, 2010 press release by Idaho State University.


While looking at a highly detailed new topographic image of Idaho’s Sawtooth Range, Idaho State University geosciences professor Glenn Thackray had an "eureka moment" when he discovered a previously unknown active earthquake fault about 65 miles, as the crow flies, from Boise. ISU researchers estimate the fault has been active twice in the last 10,000 years, about 4,100 and 7,000 years ago.

The researchers examined a Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) image. LIDAR is a remote sensing system used to collect topographic data with aircraft-mounted lasers capable of recording elevation measurements at a rate of 25,000 pulses per second and can have a vertical precision of about six inches. The images can be displayed so they don't show an area's vegetation. Four years ago while doing some research on glaciers in the Sawtooth Range, Thackray was examining a high-resolution, "bare-earth" LIDAR image of the mountains: this is when he noticed a line running through the image in the vicinity of Redfish Lake.

"The black line stood out and I thought that it had to be an earthquake fault," Thackray said. "It was long suspected that there was an active fault in the Sawtooths, but without the LIDAR technology it would have been exceptionally hard to find."

Documenting the Fault on the Ground

Since that time, ISU researchers have been on the ground documenting the fault that is at least 25 miles long and could be as long as 40 miles. It is located on the eastern edge of the range and comes within about five miles from the town of Stanley. A portion of it runs through the upper end of Redfish Lake. It runs along the range approximately from near Stanley Lake to at least as far south as Petitt Lake.

65 Miles from Boise - Idaho's Largest City

“The reason this discovery is so important is that it is within the heavily visited areas of the Sawtooth National Recreation area, very close to the town of Stanley, and within 65 miles of Idaho’s largest city, Boise, and the most populated area in the state,” Thackray said. “We would like to know how big the earthquakes are along this fault and how active it is.”

Land-Use, Emergency Planning, Building Codes

Thackray emphasized that the fault is cause for concern, but not alarm, for visitors to and residents of the Stanley-Sawtooth area, and to the residents of the Wood River or Boise valleys. The discovery may have implications for land-use and emergency planning, and perhaps building codes. Depending on the magnitude of a potential earthquake, it could do damage to surrounding areas.

Other Major Faults in Idaho

There are few major, active faults in Idaho. Idaho’s three other major faults run along the base of the Lost River Range (where the famous Borah Peak magnitude 7.3 earthquake, the largest ever recorded in Idaho, occurred in 1983), the Lemhi Range and the Beaverhead Range. Faults are break in the earth’s crust, along which rocks and the earth move. Typically, the earth is moving up on one side of the fault, and moving down on the other.

"It's the movement of the rocks that are important. That is what creates an earthquake hazard," Thackray said.

How Active is the Fault?

After discovering the fault on the LIDAR image and then confirming its existence on the ground, ISU researchers had to determine whether it was an active fault, defined as a fault that has featured an earthquake within the last 10,000 years. Determining whether the fault was active was a challenge for the researchers because most of the fault is located within the Sawtooth Wilderness and Recreation Area.

"Normally, to test a fault you could take in a Cat or backhoe and dig up sediment and rock and use carbon dating to date the occurrence of previous activity," Thackray said. "But we couldn’t do that because the fault is in a wilderness area."

Unexpected Data from Biologists

This is where a little luck and scientific serendipity came into play. Other ISU researchers, biological sciences professor Bruce Finney, postdoctoral researcher Mark Shapley, and ISU geosciences graduate student Eric Johnson, were doing lake sediment core sampling of lakes in the Sawtooths, including Redfish Lake, to study the historical record of sockeye salmon returning to the area. While drilling through the sediment in the upper portion of Redfish Lake the researchers hit levels where there were landslide deposits interrupted the regular accumulation of sediment deposits.

"We were able to date the occurrence of the most recent fault activity by using those drilling samples from the large landslides in Redfish Lake," Thackray said.

"There is a lot that we still don’t know about this fault, but our studies have revealed the outline of its history," he added.

As far as warning and mitigation go, I think this state pretty much has it covered.  Idaho took the correct steps and provides an optimal model for other states to follow (inside and outside the US). They detected the issue, determined the seriousness of the hazard without disrupting the environment, and are keeping a watchful eye on the fault without panicking.  Another thing I like about what they’re doing is they are planning ahead.  They are going to instill evacuation routs, new building codes and whatever mitigation methods necessary to protect the people of Boise, Idaho.  I think that early detection is key in this case and further research about the potential risk of the area will help educate the people on what they can do in the mean time.  Some key things that other nations at risk can take away from this are the importance of early detection, installment of building codes, evacuation routes and public awareness.

Refer to Indonesia Page

Another Indonesian Volcano Threatens to Erupt

Nov 23, 2010 10:11 AM ET

By OurAmazingPlanet Staff

Indonesia is on alert again for a possible volcanic eruption, this time from Mount Bromo, located on the eastern end of the Indonesian island of Java, according to news reports.

The eruption red alert comes just a couple weeks after Mount Merapi's relentless erupting killed more than 300 people. [Related: Mount Merapi's Devastation Seen from Space.]

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"We raised the status of Bromo to the highest red alert level at 3:30 pm (0830 GMT) today. There's a chance of an eruption soon," government volcanologist Surono told AFP.

Bromo started rumbling to life on Nov. 8, the AFP reports, and plumes of smoke and ash were rising from the summit crater on Tuesday (Nov. 23).

But Bromo, unlike Merapi, lies in a less populated region, within the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park. Merapi has displaced more than 200,000 people from nearby villages.

Bromo is a fairly active volcano; it last erupted was in 2004, killing two tourists.

Bromo is located in the center of the Sandsea Caldera, itself only a portion of the larger Tengger Caldera (a caldera is the circular depression in the center of a volcano's summit). The Sandsea caldera formed around 8,000 years ago, in what must have been a massive eruption. Subsequent volcanic activity formed the cluster of cinder cones in the caldera's center, including Bromo.

According to Erik Klemetti of Big Think's Eruptions blog, Bromo is a different type of volcano than Merapi, one that tends to have smaller eruptions that blech out ash and perhaps small lava flows, but doesn't produce the large pyroclastic flows — scorching rivers of gas and rock — that stratovolcanoes like Merapi do.

Indonesia itself is a very volcanically and seismically active region that lies along the infamous Pacific Ring of Fire. One of the largest volcanic explosions in history, that of Krakatoa in 1883, occurred on the tiny volcanic island of the same name between Java and Sumatra, killing some 40,000 people. The remnant of that spectacular eruption, called Anak Krakatau, has also been rumbling and producing smoke recently.

It's a good thing that this volcano is in an isolated region unlike Merapi. If this wasn't the case, there would be much more serious consequences on our hands.  This recent activity is still of great worry however. If this trend continues (refer to the page on Indonesia's volcanoes), then they could very possibly be starting to face problems closer to densely populated areas.  This is a subject that I hope volcanologists are all over because this pattern could help lead to a future disaster which would allow the government to take mitigation action.

Earthquake risk high in Panama, data suggests

Last Updated: Thursday, November 18, 2010 | 3:01 PM ET .CBC News
A file photo showing a U.S. tanker leaving the Miraflores locks of the Panama Canal on its way to the Pacific Ocean beside a ship carrying grain. New research suggests the canal and nearby Panama City face a significant risk of a large quake. (Alberto Lowe/Reuters)Two faults that run through central Panama have ruptured both independently and in unison over the past 1,400 years, suggesting that Panama City and the Panama Canal face "a significant seismic risk," new research suggests.

That conclusion followed a seismic hazard study undertaken as part of an ongoing expansion of the Panama Canal to allow for larger ships.

Researchers studied the Limon and Pedro Miguel faults and found that both are seismically active and have relatively short recurrence rates for large earthquakes. Recurrence rates are estimates of how frequently quakes are likely to hit a given area.

The Pedro Miguel fault actually runs between two of the locks on the Panama Canal. This fault last ruptured in 1621, resulting in a devastating earthquake.

"That earthquake resulted in nearly [three metres] of displacement where the fault crosses the canal," said lead author Thomas Rockwell, a geologist at San Diego State University. "Another such earthquake today could have dramatic effects."

The authors argue that the Pedro Miguel fault's location and rate of activity should be taken into account in the expansion of the Panama Canal and its new lock system.

The researchers say they found evidence that both the Pedro Miguel and Limon faults may have failed at the same time around 700 AD.

The authors say the apparent ability of these two faults to rupture in unison poses danger to the canal.

"While no fault passes though or beneath any critical structures, the area and structures would be subject to significant shaking," they wrote.

The capital is also at risk, the study's authors say.

"As Panama City lies only a few kilometers from the Pedro Miguel fault, renewed activity on this fault could cause substantial damage to structures that were not designed for strong shaking," they write.

The research is published in Thursday's Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America


Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010/11/18/panama-earthquake-risk.html#ixzz15kdG6axC

This article I found quite humorous actually.  I stumbled upon it shortly after watching House Hunters on HGTV.  The particular episode was about a couple looking for a 2 million dollar summer home in Panama.  Their family lived and worked in Florida and liked Panama for its cheap real estate.  I guess there is a flourishing community of semi-wealthy Americans building multimillion dollar homes Near the Panama Canal.  This makes me wonder how many of them are actually knowledgeable of the area and the danger it holds.  I would greatly advise anyone looking into placing their life savings in this area, to maybe do some background reading to make sure their home will still be standing in the years to come.

I thought it was interesting how not only is this a major faut in the seemingly inactive interior of the United States, but how the fault lines are independent of one another. This means that if one earthquake happens, it doesn't necessairly release strain along the entire fault line. Even more interesting however is where these fault lines are located. Not only are they at the base of the mountain, which increases slope failure, but the heavily populated area gives rise for concern. It's good to see that the state of Utah is taking major strides to improve old buildings as well as increasing codes for important new structures such as schools. The hazard poses some more serious effects than the obvious associated with a typical large earthquake however. Some of the most seveare that come to mind are water contamination and nuclear waste. Because so many of these are in direct relation to the fault lines, mitigation of these disastrous effects is nearly impossible. Even though the state is taking strides in improving structures, more work needs to be done to make sure toxic waste is not spewed everywhere.

Potential Face-off

So even though this isn't directly related to natural disasters, it is a pushing issue. If China and the US get into heat with each other then it will be a disaster for sure! Very interesting, a must see.

Potential for Mass Wastage?

Meltwater flowing through ice sheets can carry warmth to the interior via crevasses, fractures, and large drains called moulins. A new modeling study shows that such warming can greatly accelerate the thermal response of an ice sheet to climate change: An ice sheet can respond on the order of decades, rather than the centuries projected by conventional thermal models. Ice flows more readily as it warms, so a warming climate can increase ice flows much faster than previously thought.
"We are finding that once such water flow is initiated through a new section of ice sheet, it can warm rather significantly and quickly, sometimes in just 10 years, " said lead author Thomas Phillips, a research scientist with the University of Colorado at Boulder and NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). "We've termed this process cryo-hydrologic warming."
Phillips, University of Colorado engineering professor Harihar Rajaram, and CIRES Director Konrad Steffen described their model results in a paper published online this week in Geophysical Research Letters.
Conventional thermal models of ice sheets do not consider the presence of water as a warming agent within the ice sheet – those models primarily consider heating by warmer air on the ice sheet surface.  In water's absence, ice warms slowly in response to the increased surface temperatures from climate change, often requiring centuries to millennia to happen. "This would be correct if water only flowed on the ice surface without the opportunity to go into it," said Phillips.
However, the Greenland ice sheet is not one solid, smooth mass of ice.  As the ice flows towards the coast, grating against bedrock, crevasses and new fractures form in the upper 100 feet of the ice sheet. Meltwater flowing through these openings can grow "ice caves" and networks of pipes that can carry water through the ice, spreading warmth.
To quantify the influence of that meltwater, the scientists modeled what would happen to the ice sheet temperature if water flowed through it for just eight weeks every summer, about the length of the active melt season.
"The key difference between our model and previous models is that we include heat exchange between water flowing through the ice sheet and the ice," said Rajaram.
The result was a significantly faster-than-expected increase in ice sheet warming, the research team reported. The warming could take place on the order of years to decades, depending on the spacing of crevasses and other "pipes" bringing warmer water into the ice sheet in summer. Several factors contributed to the warming and resultant acceleration of ice flow:

1. Slower cooling: Some of the water that flows into the ice sheet can stay liquid even through the winter, slowing seasonal cooldown.
2. Basal lubrication: A warmer ice sheet is more susceptible to increases in flow by long-understood mechanisms, such as basal lubrication of the ice.
3. A downward spiral of damage: Water cascading into ice can warm the surrounding ice and also re-freeze, creating further cracks in the more vulnerable, warm ice.

Taken together, these interactions between water, temperature, and ice velocity spell even more rapid changes to ice sheets in a changing climate than currently anticipated, the authors concluded.
In fact, the authors compared observed temperature profiles from Greenland with  model results. Unless the cryo-hydrologic warming was accounted for, they could not explain observations.
"The fact that the ice temperatures warm rather quickly is really the key piece that's been overlooked in models currently being used to determine how Greenland responds to climate warming," Steffen said. "However, this process is not the 'death knell' for the ice sheet. It'll still take thousands of years, if not a multiple thereof, for the ice sheet to disappear."
Collaborators on this project include the Aerospace Engineering and Sciences, Geography, and Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering departments at the University of Colorado at Boulder. This study was supported by NASA Cryosphere Science Program grants and is published online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Download a copy of the paper here.

Contact:

Thomas Phillips, CIRES, 303-492-4829, Thomas.Phillips@colorado.edu
Harihar Rajaram, CU, 303-492-6604, Hari@colorado.edu
Konrad Steffen, CIRES, 303-492-8773, Konrad.Steffen@colorado.edu
Morgan Heim, CIRES Communication, 303-492-6289, Morgan.Heim@colorado.edu

Haiti Quake Risk May Still be High
Released: 10/29/2010 4:23:04 PM

Contact Information: U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey Office of Communication 119 National Center Reston, VA 20192

---

The fault initially thought to have triggered January’s devastating earthquake in Haiti is likely still under considerable strain and continues to pose a significant seismic hazard, according to a study published online in Nature Geoscience Sunday.
U.S. Geological Survey geologist Carol Prentice led a team of scientists to Haiti immediately after the earthquake to search for traces of ground rupture and to investigate the geology and paleoseismology of the area.
Using geological field observations, and interpretations of satellite imagery, aerial photography, and light detection and ranging, the researchers sought evidence of deformation from the 2010 quake and determined the main strand of the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault did not rupture in the January quake, as was initially thought.
They also documented evidence of geologically-young ground ruptures on the EPG Fault, which they believe may have formed during earthquakes that struck Haiti in 1751 and 1770. Because the EPG Fault did not rupture the surface in January, little, if any, accumulated strain on that fault was released during the quake and the hazard remains high.
The EPG Fault is a tectonic plate boundary similar to the San Andreas Fault in California. The January Haiti quake was similar in many respects to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. Like the Haiti quake, the Loma Prieta quake did not produce primary surface rupture and did not occur on the main San Andreas Fault. However the fault that ruptured during the 1989 quake is part of a complex set of nearby faults whose movement is driven by the plate-boundary tectonics, much like the setting of the Haiti earthquake.
This study was published online this week in Nature Geoscience, as part of a special issue on the Haiti earthquake.

This article was quite surprising to me.  I thought that because the Haiti earthquake was so large, it must have released a great amount of strain. Because this wasn’t the case however, the reconstruction process is called into question.  Considering the complexity model, mitigation for this future event is a little more complicated.  Because of the nation’s poor economy, I wonder if it would be beneficial to rebuild the city of Port Au Prince.  If there is a larger quake on the way and headed for the same city, would it be smarter to completely relocate? Would it even be possible to restructure the city so it would be strong enough to survive another disaster such as their last one? It is important to take into account how much funds the government and aid agencies are able to put forth in the rebuilding project, where this future earthquake will occur, and if it would be beneficial to relocate the people elsewhere.

Storm Brings Wind, Rain To Midwest, South

by The Associated Press

Enlarge Associated Press Terry North, 28, walks past a section of a roof that blew off his apartment in Covington, Ky., during a storm, Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010.

Associated Press

Terry North, 28, walks past a section of a roof that blew off his apartment in Covington, Ky., during a storm, Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010.

Enlarge Associated Press Two Red Cross workers walk away from a barn that was lifted off its foundation by a tornado Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010, in Mount Pleasant, Wis. Wisconsin is one of eleven states in the midwest under a high wind warning.

Associated Press

Two Red Cross workers walk away from a barn that was lifted off its foundation by a tornado Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010, in Mount Pleasant, Wis. Wisconsin is one of eleven states in the midwest under a high wind warning.

Enlarge Associated Press Chattanooga Police officer Galen Roberts, right, gets information from motorist Ashley Mills following an accident around the Chickamauga Dam on Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010 in Chattanooga, Tenn.

Associated Press

Chattanooga Police officer Galen Roberts, right, gets information from motorist Ashley Mills following an accident around the Chickamauga Dam on Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010 in Chattanooga, Tenn.

Associated Press Damages tree limbs can be seen near a barn that was lifted off its foundation by a tornado Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010, in Mount Pleasant, Wis. Wisconsin is one of eleven states in the midwest under a high wind warning.

Enlarge Associated Press A knocked down tree is shown Tuesday Oct. 26, 2010, after a tornado touched down near Racine, Wis.

Associated Press

A knocked down tree is shown Tuesday Oct. 26, 2010, after a tornado touched down near Racine, Wis.

text size A A A

CHICAGO October 27, 2010, 08:07 am ET

A massive storm making its way through a big chunk of the nation brought a bit of everything: strong winds, rain, tornadoes and now even some snow for parts of the Midwest.
The storm packed wind gusts of up to 81 mph Tuesday as it howled across the Midwest and South, snapping trees and power lines, ripping off roofs and delaying flights. The storm continued its trek early Wednesday, with snow falling in the Dakotas and Minnesota. More strong winds were in the forecast in several other states.
National Weather Service reports indicate as much as 8 inches of snow fell in North Dakota. Linnea Reeves, a Walmart employee in Bismarck, N.D., said the snow has already made roads hazardous in her neighborhood.
"The weather is not very nice out here. The winds are picking up and it's very snowy very slick," Reeves said. "I've got my snow shovel in my car in case I get stuck."
A blizzard warning was in effect Wednesday for North Dakota, where up to 10 inches was expected in some areas. Lighter snow was expected in Wisconsin, Minnesota and South Dakota.
The unusual system mesmerized meteorologists because of its size and because it had barometric pressure that was similar to a Category 3 hurricane, but with much less destructive power.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the system's pressure reading Tuesday was among the lowest ever in a non-tropical storm in the mainland U.S. Spokeswoman Susan Buchanan said the storm was within the top five in terms of low pressure, which brings greater winds.
The fast-moving storm blew in from the Pacific Northwest on the strength of a jet stream that is about one-third stronger than normal for this time of year, said David Imy, operations chief at the NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. As the system moved into the nation's heartland, it drew in warm air needed to fuel thunderstorms. Then the winds intensified and tornadoes formed.
By Tuesday morning, sustained winds were about 35 to 40 mph and gusting much higher. A gust of 81 mph was recorded in Butlerville, Ohio, and 80 mph in Greenfield, Ind., according to NOAA.
Tornadoes whirled through Racine County, Wis., where two people were injured when a section of roof was torn off a tractor factory, and in Van Wert County, Ohio, near the Indiana border, where a barn was flattened and flipped over a tractor-trailer and camper. In Lincoln County, N.C., 11 people were injured and several homes damaged when a possible tornado touched down, emergency management officials said. An apparent tornado on the Chickamauga Dam in Chattanooga, Tenn., caused an accident that led to the closure of the highway and injured several people. A tornado also touched down in Peotone, Ill., where three people were injured when a home's roof came off, and twisters were suspected in several other states.
The National Weather Service confirmed that eight tornadoes struck in Indiana Tuesday, but that no serious damage or injuries were reported.
Sheryl Uthemann, 49, was working first shift at the Case New Holland plant in Mount Pleasant, Wis., when the storm blew through and started to lift the roof.
"It was just a regular workday and all of a sudden that noise just came and (co-workers) said 'Run! Run! Run!' You didn't have time to think," she said. "I looked up where the noise was coming from and saw pieces of the roof sucked up. I've never been more scared, ever."
With rain falling in western Wisconsin, Xcel Energy was watching for the potential failure of a hydroelectric dam near Ladysmith after a small sinkhole developed in an earthen embankment. No evacuations were ordered. The dam is in a rural area on the Flambeau River.
In the Indiana town of Wanatah, about 60 miles southeast of Chicago, a pole barn at a hydraulics company was destroyed, and two homes were severely damaged, though no injuries were reported.
In the Chicago suburb of Lindenhurst, a woman was injured when a branch fell about 65 feet from a large tree, crashed into her car and impaled her abdomen.
Meteorologists said the storm's barometric pressure readings were comparable to those of a Category 3 hurricane but with much weaker winds. The wind gusts were only as strong as a tropical storm. Category 3 hurricanes have winds from 111 to 130 mph. If Tuesday's low-pressure system had been over water — where winds get higher — it would have created a major hurricane, Imy said.
In the Chicago area, morning commuters faced blustery, wind-driven rain as they waited for trains.
About 500 flights were canceled and others delayed at O'Hare Airport, a major hub for American and United airlines. The storms also disrupted flights at the Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Minneapolis airports.
Chicago's 110-story Willis Tower, the nation's tallest building, closed the Skydeck observatory and retracted "The Ledge" attraction — four glass boxes that jut out from the building's 103rd floor.
In Michigan, wind speeds topped 35 mph on the five-mile Mackinac Bridge, which links the state's Upper and Lower peninsulas. Traffic continued to cross, but escorts were given to "high-profile" vehicles such as large trucks, school buses and vehicles towing trailers.
In St. Louis, strong winds were blamed for a partial building collapse that sent bricks, mortar, roofing and some window air conditioners raining down onto a sidewalk. No one was injured.
———
Associated Press writers Seth Borenstein in Washington; Karen Hawkins, Carla K. Johnson, Tamara Starks and Lindsey Tanner in Chicago; David Aguilar in Detroit; John Flesher in Traverse City, Mich.; Tom Davies in South Bend, Ind.; Jeannie Nuss in Columbus, Ohio; Doug Whiteman in Cleveland, Ohio; Gretchen Ehlke in Milwaukee; Sofia A. Mannos in Washington D.C. and Jim Suhr in St. Louis contributed to this story.

Possible Future Global Epidemic???

Drought May Threaten Much of Globe Within Decades

Dryness likely to increase substantially across Eurasia, Africa, Australia


October 19, 2010

The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to results of a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai.
The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years.
The drought may reach a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.
Using an ensemble of 22 computer climate models and a comprehensive index of drought conditions, as well as analyses of previously published studies, the paper reports that by the 2030s, dryness is likely to increase substantially across most of the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa, and Australia.
By later this century, many of the world's most densely populated regions will be threatened with severe drought conditions.
In contrast, higher-latitude regions from Alaska to Scandinavia are likely to become more moist.
Dai cautioned that the findings are based on the best current projections of greenhouse gas emissions.
What happens in coming decades will depend on many factors, including actual future emissions of greenhouse gases as well as natural climate cycles such as El Niño.
The new findings appear this week as part of a longer review article in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. The study was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR's sponsor.
"This research does an excellent job of placing future warming-induced drought in the context of the historical drought record," says Eric DeWeaver, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funds NCAR.
"The work argues credibly that the worst consequences of global warming may come in the form of reductions in water resources."
While regional climate projections are less certain than those for the globe as a whole, Dai's study indicates that most of the western two-thirds of the United States will be significantly drier by the 2030s.
Large parts of the nation may face an increasing risk of extreme drought during the century.
"We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community," Dai says. "If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous."
Other countries and continents that could face significant drying include:

• Much of Latin America, including large sections of Mexico and Brazil
• Regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea, which could become especially dry
• Large parts of Southwest Asia
• Most of Africa and Australia, with particularly dry conditions in regions of Africa
• Southeast Asia, including parts of China and neighboring countries

The study also finds that drought risk can be expected to decrease this century across much of Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, and Alaska, as well as some areas in the Southern Hemisphere.
However, the globe's land areas should be drier overall.
"The increased wetness over the northern, sparsely populated high latitudes can't match the drying over the more densely populated temperate and tropical areas," Dai says.
Previous climate studies have indicated that global warming will probably alter precipitation patterns as the subtropics expand.
The 2007 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that subtropical  areas will likely have precipitation declines, with high-latitude areas getting more precipitation.
In addition, previous studies by Dai have indicated that climate change may already be having a drying effect on parts of the world.
He and colleagues found that the percentage of Earth's land area stricken by serious drought more than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s. Last year, he headed up a research team that found that some of the world's major rivers are losing water.
In his new study, Dai turned from rain and snow amounts to drought itself, and posed a basic question: how will climate change affect future droughts?
If rainfall runs short by a given amount, it may or may not produce drought conditions, depending on how warm it is, how quickly the moisture evaporates, and other factors.
Droughts are complex events that can be associated with significantly reduced precipitation, dry soils that fail to sustain crops, and reduced levels in reservoirs and other bodies of water that can imperil drinking supplies.
A common measure called the Palmer Drought Severity Index classifies the strength of a drought by tracking precipitation and evaporation over time and comparing them to the usual variability one would expect at a given location.
Dai turned to results from the 22 computer models used by the IPCC in its 2007 report to gather projections about temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and Earth's radiative balance, based on current projections of greenhouse gas emissions.
He then fed the information into the Palmer model to calculate the PDSI index. A reading of +0.5 to -0.5 on the index indicates normal conditions, while a reading at or below -4 indicates extreme drought.
The index ranges from +10 to -10 for current climate conditions, although readings below -6 are exceedingly rare, even for small areas.
By the 2030s, the results indicated that some regions in the United States and overseas could experience particularly severe conditions, with readings potentially dropping to -4 to -6 in much of the central and western United States as well as several regions overseas, and -8 or lower in parts of the Mediterranean.
By the end of the century, many populated areas, including parts of the United States, could face readings in the range of -8 to -10, and much of the Mediterranean could fall to -15 to -20.
Such readings would be almost unprecedented.
Dai cautions that global climate models remain inconsistent in capturing precipitation changes and other atmospheric factors, especially at the regional scale.
However, the 2007 IPCC models were in stronger agreement on high- and low-latitude precipitation than those used in previous reports, says Dai.
There are also uncertainties in how well the Palmer index captures the range of conditions that future climate may produce.
The index could be overestimating drought intensity in the more extreme cases, says Dai.
On the other hand, the index may be underestimating the loss of soil moisture should rain and snow fall in shorter, heavier bursts and run off more quickly.
Such precipitation trends have already been diagnosed in the United States and several other areas over recent years, says Dai.
"The fact that the current drought index may not work for the 21st century climate is itself a troubling sign," Dai says.

-NSF-

Landslide detector wins enterprise award

14 October 2010 | By Stephen Harris

An early-warning device for detecting landslides has won a Loughborough University enterprise award.

The invention, developed by researchers in Loughborough’s civil and building engineering department, uses real-time acoustic sensors to listen for movement in the soil.

Following work funded by the EPSRC and built in collaboration with the British Geological Survey, researchers last year conducted successful trials of the sensor and won the commercialisation category of the university’s Enterprise Awards 2010.

Existing monitoring systems measure the physical movement of devices planted in the ground and are checked at regular intervals to provide an indication of the average size and speed of movement.

Loughborough’s device, called Assessment of Landslides using Acoustic Real-time Monitoring Systems (ALARMS), detects high-frequency stress waves produced by soil movement. Because they are continuously monitored by wireless communication, they can be used to calculate soil movement in real time.

The challenge was finding a way to detect the very small stress waves given off by soil movement, said Neil Dixon, professor of geotechnical engineering at Loughborough and co-inventor of ALARMS together with Matthew Spriggs.

‘When rocks fracture they give off lots of energy as acoustic emissions,’ added Dixon. ‘But most landslides are in soils and you get very low energy when two soil particles move against each other and the stress wave loses energy very quickly in the ground.’

ALARMS uses a steel tube called a wave guide to conduct the signals out of the ground. This is placed in a borehole in the ground filled with sand or gravel that produces more energy when moved than the soil itself, making the signal easier to detect.

The device also detects high-frequency waves of around 20-30kHz because lower frequencies within hearing range, although they lose less energy and are easier to detect, would include background noise from other sources.

Dixon carried out tests to determine how the acoustic signal produced by the gravel related to the speed and size of movement in the ground, regardless of what kind of soil it is.

‘Because we used the same backfill and wave guide every time we can actually calibrate it,’ he said. ‘If we get a certain amount of acoustics, we can relate that to a displacement rate.’

Measuring such high-frequency waves requires very fast computing power, so Dixon, in collaboration with the British Geological Survey, also developed a low-cost instrument to process and transmit the landslide data from the wave guide.

‘It counts the number of times the signal goes above a threshold every 15 minutes and it’s that number we relate to our calibrations to tell us how fast the slope is moving,’ said Dixon.

‘This has only been possible because of the development of printed circuit boards and the processing that can now be put on small chips. We couldn’t have done this five years ago.’

Dixon has plans conduct a second set of trials this winter on infrastructure slopes around roads and railways. He also hopes for further EPSRC funds to allow him to redesign the sensor to minimise power and cost.

Read more: http://www.theengineer.co.uk/news/landslide-detector-wins-enterprise-award/1005472.article#ixzz133YWrb00

 

I think this is an absolutely brilliant example of how technology isn’t purely evil as some might argue.  Being able to get a reading on a computer telling someone that a mountain face is about to let loose is absolutely incredible.  This technology seems simple enough that it could be adopted by countries that don’t necessarily have the resources to implement a warning system of their own.  In Haiti for example, this would be an invaluable resource for them to have.  Since their area is already prone to these disasters, it is only a matter of time before some warning system will have to be implemented.   This article provides a solid explanation for how the system works, but it still leaves out some valuable details.  For example, nowhere do they elaborate on how soon they are able to detect soil movement.  It seems that if soil is already moving, the landslide is well on its way down the hill, leaving virtually no time for people to evacuate.  Knowing this information would be a good indicator on the practicality of installing this device. I definitely agree that the makers of this product are onto something.   If they can perfect this technology and make it readily accessible; it will indefinitely save countless lives.

A Different Look at Population Growth With Climate Change

The Impact of People Upon the Planet

Changes in the human population, including aging and urbanization, could significantly affect global emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 40 years.

These findings appear in a paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), were recognized by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Their work was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), a European Young Investigator's Award, and the Hewlett Foundation.

"By examining the relationship between population dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions, this groundbreaking research increases our understanding of how human behaviors, decisions and lifestyles will determine the path of future climate change," says Sarah Ruth, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funds NCAR.

Three Billion More Urban Dwellers by 2050?

By mid-century it is estimated that global population could rise by more than three billion people, with most of that increase occurring in urban areas.

The study showed that a slowing of that population growth could contribute to significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Slowing Population Growth

The researchers found that if population follows one of the slower growth paths foreseen as plausible by demographers at the United Nations, by 2050 it could account for 16 to 29 percent of the emission reductions thought necessary to keep global temperatures from causing serious impacts.

The effect of slower population growth on greenhouse gas emissions would be even larger by the end of the century.

"If global population growth slows down, it is not going to solve the climate problem, but it can make a contribution, especially in the long term," says the paper's lead author, Brian O'Neill, an NCAR scientist.

Where Population Grows is Significant

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O'Neill's co-author, IIASA scientist Shonali Pachauri, says that slower population growth will have different influences, depending on where it occurs.

"A slowing of population growth in developing countries today will have a large impact on future global population size. However, slower population growth in developed countries will matter to emissions, too, because of higher per capita energy use," says Pachauri.

Scientists have long known that changes in population will have some effect on greenhouse gas emissions, but there has been debate on how large that effect might be.

The researchers sought to quantify how demographic changes influence emissions over time, and in which regions of the world. They also went beyond changes in population size to examine the links between aging, urbanization, and emissions.

The Unique Impact of Urban Populations

The team found that growth in urban populations could lead to as much as a 25 percent rise in projected carbon dioxide emissions in some developing countries.

The increased economic growth associated with city-dwellers was directly correlated with increased emissions, largely due to the higher productivity and consumption preferences of an urban labor force.

The Unique Impact of Aging Populations

In contrast, aging can reduce emissions levels by up to 20 percent in some industrialized countries. Older populations are associated with lower labor force participation, and the resulting lower productivity leads to lower economic growth.

"Demography will matter to greenhouse gas emissions over the next 40 years," says O'Neill. "Urbanization will be particularly important in many developing countries, especially China and India, and aging will be important in industrialized countries."

The researchers worked with projections showing that population aging will occur in all regions of the world, a result of people living longer and declines in fertility.

Modeling the Impact of Demographic Change

The authors developed a set of economic growth, energy use, and emissions scenarios, using a new computer model (the Population- Environment-Technology model, or PET).

To capture the effects of future demographic change, they distinguished between household types, looking at age, size, and urban vs. rural location.

The Unique Impact of Household Types

In addition, they drew on data from national surveys covering 34 countries and representative of 61 percent of the global population to estimate key economic characteristics of household types over time, including labor supply and demand for consumer goods.

"Households can affect emissions either directly, through their consumption patterns, or indirectly, through their effects on economic growth," O'Neill explains.

The authors also suggest that developers of future emissions scenarios give greater consideration to the implications of urbanization and aging, particularly in the U.S., European Union, China and India.

The Range of Future Energy Demand

"Further analysis of these trends would improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demand and emissions," says O'Neill.

The researchers caution that their findings do not imply that policies affecting aging or urbanization should be implemented as a response to climate change, but rather that better understanding of these trends would help anticipate future changes.

Earth quake close to home

Moderate quake rocks Oklahoma

Minor damage, few injuries reported following mid-Oklahoma earthquake

NORMAN, OK | October 13, 2010

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A moderate earthquake shook central Oklahoma Wednesday morning, seismologists and residents said, but no serious damage or casualties have been reported. It was the strongest quake to hit the state in more than 40 years.

The 4.3-magnitude earthquake at 9.06 a.m. CDT was centered approximately 6 miles east of Norman, a city in Cleveland County, or 23 miles southeast of Oklahoma City. It struck about 3.1 miles deep, making it a very shallow earthquake, according to seismologists. According to news reports, the quake was felt throughout the state and northern Texas.

According to Michelann Ooten of the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM), minor damage has been reported including broken windows and items falling from shelves. At least two people were treated by emergency responders as a result of a fall.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the strength of the earthquake at 4.3 on the Richter scale, while the Oklahoma Geological Survey initially measured it as much stronger 5.1-magnitude earthquake.

The USGS estimated that approximately 99,000 people may have perceived moderate earthquake shaking, which could potentially result in light damage. Up to 2 million others may have felt weak to light shaking.

The Cleveland County sheriff's office reported some minor damage including cans rolling off shelves and a few broken window, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or casualties. "There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage," the USGS said.

Nevertheless, Jim Bailey, the deputy fire chief in Norman, suggested residents check their homes and businesses for structural damage.

Wednesday's earthquake was unusually strong for the region, which is regularly rattled by minor earthquakes. According to the USGS, most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains has infrequent earthquakes from time to time.

Here and there earthquakes are more numerous, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone centered on southeastern Missouri, in the Charlevoix-Kamouraska seismic zone of eastern Quebec, in New England, in the New York - Philadelphia - Wilmington urban corridor, and elsewhere. However, most of the enormous region from the Rockies to the Atlantic can go years without an earthquake large enough to be felt, and several U.S. states have never reported a damaging earthquake. The earthquakes that do occur strike anywhere at irregular intervals.

Earthquakes east of the Rocky Mountains, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 60 miles from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 300 miles from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 25 miles, the USGS said.

This year already marks as a very active year for earthquakes in Oklahoma. According to the Oklahoma Geological Survey, the agency has recorded more than 200 earthquakes in Oklahoma, including nearly 60 which have been felt.

On April 9, 1952, a moderate 5.5-magnitude earthquake struck near El Reno in Oklahoma and caused moderate damage in El Reno, Oklahoma City, and Ponca City. Damage included toppled chimneys and smokestacks, cracked and loosened bricks on buildings, and broken windows and dishes.

One crack in the State Capitol at Oklahoma City was 16 yards long while slight damage was reported from many other towns in Oklahoma and from some towns in Kansas and Texas. The earthquake was caused by slippage along the Nemaha fault and was the largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma. It was felt over most of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas.

The Oklahoma quake wasn't the only one reported in the central U.S. today. A much smaller, 2.7 magnitude earthquake was recorded in Arkansas early Wednesday morning.

(BNO News contributed to this article.)

Mud Slides in India

Market Sensitive News

Flash Floods, Landslides Leave 26 Indonesians Dead

10/5/2010 2:50 AM ET

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(RTTNews) - Flash floods and landslides triggered by recent torrential rains left more than 26 persons dead in Indonesia's eastern West Papua province, local reports said Tuesday.

Officials said nature's fury struck West Papua's Teluk Wondama district early Monday, following heavy and continuous downpour from Sunday.
Rescue officials said six persons were still missing, adding that the flash floods and landslides injured 61 others and destroyed more than 30 houses.
The authorities have rushed hundreds of emergency workers to the affected region, but their efforts are being hampered by fallen trees and roads either blocked or washed away by landslides and floods.
Such floods and landslides are common in Indonesia during the country's wet season that generally extends from December to April annually. However, Indonesia is experiencing an extended rainy season this year.
by RTT Staff Writer

Trouble Still in Haiti

Intense storm blasts Haiti

Disaster responders assess damages following deadly wind and rain storm

PORT-AU-PRINCE, HAITI | September 25, 2010

Months after a powerful earthquake devastated the Haitian capital, a sudden rainstorm on Friday killed at least 5 people and affected thousands of people more in the region.

The powerful storm brought strong winds to the capital and came as sudden as a powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince in January. It left as many as 5,000 tents destroyed, according to the United Nations.

Authorities in the capital said five people were killed in the storm that only lasted several minutes. Hundreds more were said to be injured, although exact numbers were not immediately available.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was saddened by the loss of life and damage and extended his 'deepest condolences' to the families of the victims, said Martin Nesirky, Ban's spokesman.

"The United Nations is responding to the situation," Nesirky said. "More than 40 teams composed of staff of the United Nations, aid agencies and the Government of Haiti are currently assessing the damage, and an aerial assessment is being conducted with the Government."

Forces from the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti were deployed throughout the city in the aftermath of the storm and are helping people who have been trapped or are in need of medical assistance. "The aid community has adequate supplies in place to respond, including tarpaulins, hygiene hits, blankets and food," Nesirky added.

Nesirky said that Ban welcomes the generosity of donors who have responded to Haiti and other crises this year, including the devastating floods in Pakistan. "The Secretary-General stressed the importance of the need for continued support for Haiti where $450 million is still required to meet ongoing needs," he said.

The powerful 7.0-magnitude earthquake that struck close to Port-au-Prince on January 12 left some 230,000 people killed, and millions more affected. It was one of the deadliest disasters in modern history.

Copyright 2010 by BNO News B.V. All rights reserved.

Things are Splitting

Harrat Lunayyir Volcanic Field

A recent swarm of 30,000 earthquakes and rifting alert geologists that Harrat Lunayyir is still active.

Harrat Lunayyir: Location and Description:

The Harrat Lunayyir Volcanic Area is located in the desert of northwestern Saudi Arabia, immediately east of the Red Sea port of Umm Lajj. It is an area of extensive basaltic lava flows and about fifty small volcanic cones (see photo below).

The center of the volcanic field is about thirty miles inland from the Red Sea. Individual lava flows radiate out in all directions from the center of the field. They follow stream valleys through the desert. Two of the flows have reached the Red Sea but they are now covered by sand along the coast.

Recent Activity at Harrat Lunayyir:

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The youngest lava flows at Harrat Lunayyir were produced by eruptions that occurred about 1000 years ago. Until 2009 the field was considered to be inactive because no evidence of recent activity had been identified.

Then, between April and June of 2009, a swarm of over 30,000 earthquakes occurred beneath the volcanic field and a fissure about five miles long opened to a width of about three feet (see photo at right).

The enormous number of earthquakes was a cause for concern. About twenty earthquakes were over magnitude 4 and a magnitude 5.4 earthquake on May 19th, 2010 damaged buildings in the town of Al Ays. These stronger earthquakes prompted the Saudi Arabian government to order evacuations and 40,000 people left their homes. They were allowed to return to their homes in August, two months after the earthquake activity subsided.

Why Is This Area Active?

Harrat Lunayyir Volcanic Area is located along the Red Sea Rift where active rifting still occurs – the Arabian Peninsula and Africa are still moving away from one another. A chain of active volcanoes runs down the center of the Red Sea. These are fed by rising magma from below. Intrusions of magma occasionally occur along the flanks of this active rift. These intrusions can cause rifting, earthquake activity and occasional volcanic eruptions. The earthquake activity and rifting of 2009 is believed to be a result of intrusions of magma into the Harrat Lunayyir area.